Drought update - a tale of East and West

Above-normal rainfall over the past 2 months provided much needed drought relief for parts of North Carolina. In particular, most of central and eastern NC is in very good shape. While the long-term precipitation deficits have not been eliminated in central and eastern NC, drought impacts in this region are hard to find. Surface reservoirs and streams are in normal ranges for this time of the year, and most (but not all) groundwater monitoring sites are in good shape. With close monitoring and regional awareness, the eastern half of NC should be able to handle any drought that might rear its head this summer.

But conditions in parts of western NC have not faired as well. While recent rainfall has helped to recharge some surface reservoirs, streams and groundwater supplies are still very low for this time of the year. As the warm summer temperatures become more frequent, this region of the state is primed for problems if we have another dry summer.

Summer Outlook: Expected lack of guidance

As is expected for this time of the year, we don't have any guidance as to what might happen during the summer of 2008. The "EC" shown on the NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook maps above refer to "equal chances" of above-, near-, and below-normal precipitation this summer. This means that given our current knowledge, we're just as likely to have a wet summer as a dry one.

Student Summer Projects

Eleven talented meteorology students are working at the climate office this summer. A variety of interesting projects are underway.

Undergraduate students David Church, Corey Davis, Jeremy Gilchrist, and Bradley McLamb are developing training modules for NC-FIRST. NC-FIRST targets first responders and aims to help them interpret and easily access weather data so they can make better decisions during weather emergencies. It includes two components: classroom training on interpreting weather data and a weather data Web portal.

Undergraduate students Elliot Foust and Monica Laureano are evaluating the performance of the WRF modeling system through statistical analysis, real-world case studies, and conducted research. These studies will focus on model analysis and evaluation, examining model strengths and deficiencies, and investigating model improvements and enhancements.

Undergraduate student Abraham Sutfin is combining agricultural and climate data to find correlations between crop yields and precipitation during each ENSO phase. The database will allow farmers in North Carolina to make more accurate predictions for irrigation based on the current ENSO phase. Undergraduate student Lena Olympio is developing software that will generate spatial maps of past NC weather and climate. These maps will be useful in visualizing our state’s complex climate. Undergraduate Adrienne Wootten is using data from the ECONet NCDENR to study Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Trends. Undergraduate student Kristen Gore is developing a time-synchronized dataset of air quality data from EPA and climate data from CRONOS. She is performing a meteorologically adjusted ozone trend analysis. Finally, John McGuire accepted an offer to attend graduate school at NC State. John will continue working at the SCO during his studies on a variety of climate applications.

The climate office is a busy place this summer and we have a fantastic team of talented students! We’ll revisit these projects in more detail in future newsletters.